The Contra Guys - Globe & Mail Column


2023

Why Bank of Nova Scotia is a Buy
The imperfect art of avoiding a value trap
It’s time to talk about tax losers and end-of-year buying
Why returning old holdings to your watch list can be a bad idea
Bears and bulls are divided over AT&T, but we’re taking a middle-ground approach
Why we think there’s lots of upside left in General Electric
Greece’s stock market is on a tear – and this ETF tracking it is poised for even more gains
Why we’re banking on a takeover of Laurentian and holding onto our shares
Without more clarity, we’ll keep turning the page on Indigo Books and Music
Why RioCan REIT is a buy right now
Why we take dealing with losses in stride
Is this under-the-radar gold-related stock ready to pop?
Nearing the End of an Era: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway
Practising patience and ignoring headlines: Investing in the Rogers-Shaw deal, and Canada’s new telecom landscape
We’ve taken a shine to the companies that took over miner Yamana, for now anyway
Why we’re sticking with this shiny metal company
Why Orange Telecom is my top dividend stock pick for 2023
Brazilian energy stock yielding 8.5% may be a bright purchase
Why we’re betting this 8% yielding telecom stock will more than triple in price
The lessons of Bed Bath & Beyond – and why we’re taking a pass on its super-volatile stock

2022

This stock says intelligent transportation systems are the ticket
This stock is well-positioned for 2023 regardless of inflation's trajectory
This stock has hit its lowest point in a decade, but don't count(er) it out yet
Why we just bought this dividend-paying furniture stock
Have pot stocks become a good contrarian bet?
Why we've sold our shares in uranium producer Cameco
Why we're expecting a four-bagger from this U.S. blue chip stock
Don't just buy the dip ' buy the crash too
This 6% yielding dividend aristocrat is an old standby that's worth a second look
This turnaround bet with solid fundamentals is bucking the stock market dip
Being a successful investor is not just about winners
Three ways to fight inflation within your personal life and portfolio
Why I'm taking a pass on buying Netflix on the dip
What should you do while markets are unsavoury?
How a SPAC deal can go horribly wrong
Why Nautilus stands a good chance of a comeback despite a recent drop in sales
What happened to Beyond Meat?
We made a killing on this energy stock – and we're still expecting a doubling in price from here
As Germany unwinds dependence on Russian oil, this stock stands to gain
RF Capital hasn't been performing well ' but there's still some hope
Why we see big risk – and big reward – in this clean technology stock
We’re holding out hope for this Turkish communications company
We’re feeling particularly bullish on uranium producer Cameco

2021

Turbulent picks reflect another turbulent year
Credit Suisse might be the contrarian stock pick you’re looking for
This holiday season, give the gift of gold shares
Why we think this is the perfect contrarian stock pick for your TFSA
This under-the-radar Canadian stock offers stability in uncertain times and a satisfying dividend
This shipping company stock has tidied up its decks and could soon triple
Why Bird Construction may be worth a flyer
This small market cap firm could be a potential takeover target
Time to play Russian Roulette? Try this telecom stock
In tax-loss selling, waiting till the last moment can be very expensive
Caesarstone is an investor’s diamond in the rough
Why we think this US bank stock is heading towards a double
A motivated new CEO’s vision should encourage investors in this multinational insurer
Real estate investment trusts to keep an eye on
Why this is our top pick among the REIT sector’s bevy of beaten-up options
In Defence of Short Sellers: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
Contra Guys: Why we’re holding the least number of stocks in more than 20 years
Contra Guys: Santander is a Spanish bank that’s too big to fail

2020

Contra Guys: Our picks really panned out in a turbulent year
Contra Guys: Why the outlook for investors in SSR Mining looks bright
Contra Guys: Amid this tax-loss selling season, watch for an opportunity to buy Suncor Energy
Contra Guys: Why we think BlackBerry is ripe for a long-awaited rebound
Contra Guys: This stock pick of ours hasn’t exactly been a gem – but we’re still hopeful of a triple
Contra Guys: Tesla is soaring, but how long will it last?
Contra Guys: This stock offers a play in the sports-card craze arising out of Covid-19
Patient investors could be rewarded by this stock, but beware of a complex sector
Why we’re expecting a four-bagger from this little-known energy stock
The lockdown might be the right time to invest in brewers
A contrarian case for investing in this long-term care stock
No sports? No problem. Why it’s time to buy Nike
This is one gold stock we’re (very patiently) watching closely
Alpha Pro Tech skyrockets amid the coronavirus outbreak
MEC’s next steps: How the outdoor and sports retailer plans to stay in the race
Investors shouldn’t be afraid to swing for the fences once in a while

2019

Lessons we learned from a catastrophic stock purchase
Can Alaska Communications thaw its frozen shares?
Happily ever after could still be possible for Lifeway Foods
Diversification doesn’t have to be a chore
Why Extendicare still offers extended gains in a volatile time
This gold stock has nearly tripled over the past two years, and we think there are more gains to come
Despite its turnaround efforts, this restaurant stock isn’t worth biting into — yet
Is Reitmans a value trap? For now, we’re hanging on to our shares
Why we’re holding tight to our Transat shares and awaiting a higher takeover bid
Why we’re not giving up on Laurentian Bank
Why Black Diamond is poised to shine on
Shifting Sands at Berkshire
Bullish on battered Stuart Olson

2018

Cautious on Kinross
Banking on America
Orange Telecom, a European giant
Why we’re expecting big returns from this enterprise
Transat set to take off?
Hubspot bubble?
Beware the CRA … and … the IRS!
From value to Momentum
From value to momentum
Caught in a Black Box
Syprius Solutions
Year in Review 2018
GMP, pot and bitcoin

2017

Patience pays
Beware overdiversification
No Love for GE
Parker Drilling’s Down Days
Why we’re not revving our engines for Harley-Davidson stock
Brick Brewing Brews
Seeking Alpha with a Little Alpha
Digging in the right direction
Britain’s Old Bank
CDI takeover target
Could Popeye’s give Restaurant Brands a case of indigestion?
WiLAN for the WIN?
Losing Faith in Berkshire
Patience When the Pickings Are Slim
BXE: high risk, and potentially high reward
Don’t expect the Trump rally to last

2016

2016 Reflections
Merger Arb
Two Watch List Highlights
Efficient Markets?
Developing a Nose for “Stink Bids”
Reitman’s Rebound
Extendicare Improves with Age
Civista Bank
Pengrowth and oil
Darling Dollarama
Flexible Solutions – Micro Cap
CENX: aluminum’s high beta stock
Female Health Co and Women’s Health Investing
Living in an oversupplied ZIRP fueled world
Tuning into Koss
A disciplined driller for a disastrous market
Reflections on 2015

2015

Checking out US Retailers
VASO’s potential
Betting on Greece with ETFs
Winfrey’s Weight Watchers
Hudson’s Bay
CAD vs. the USD
GSE’s niche market problem
Strategic Metals
Watching Executive Compensation
National Bank of Greece
Brick Brewing
Aegon is cheap
Don’t buy in May and go away
TransAlta’s shifting power price problems
Lemon Lulu
The Grey Cup of Value Investing
United Security Upside
Diana Shipping
Follow your sold losers
Patience with Penn West
Alacer Gold Corp
2014 in Review

2014

The Ebola crisis and APT
Cautious on contrary Russia
Beware the “omniscient” activist
Buying amid tax loss selling
Lackluster and loving it
Rona’s bright future
Searching for contrarian plays in sporting goods
Getting down with dilution
Investing and marijuana
Joining Cascade Bancorp’s insiders
Disciplined or obstinate?
First United offers bank sector upside
Atlantic Power in a tough spot
Will Reitmans turn?
Star Gas set to shine?
Buffett, Bitcoin and bubbles
Supernova Harmony?
Contra results 2013

2013

Contrary coal
Crowdfunding love
Six lessons and a 473 percent return
Opawica Exploration
Big micro-miner ambitions
Vacations and better returns
Eliminating REITs
The bridge over the Little Bow
GE lights up
Shiny Apples…
Torstar the patience tester
Calling on Paris for value
The Contra methodology explained
Michigan bank aims to shift to high gear
Will profits blossom at 1-800-Flowers?
Two roads diverged in a yellow metal
Taking a gamble on Dover Downs
Hits and misses of 2012

2012

BlackBerry not yet dead on the vine
Com Dev on the launch pad
Better off than four years ago, but not without learning some lessons
Hemisphere has potential for a rich harvest
Hot commodity or value trap?
Carney should focus on saving jobs and Canadian companies
Following the leaders not a surefire strategy
RioCan Sings in the Sonshine
Adhering to Intertape
Energy-sector innovations are disruptive in short term
Benj gets exclusive access at Alpha Pro Tech AGM
Shaw rallies behind Wi-Fi, avoids cellular
Looking on the bright side of life with Stewart and Service
Toronto: Budget cuts amidst the condo boom
ISSI fishing for success in chip business
All along, Viterra was sowing seeds of takeover interest
ATS is Benj’s One and Only
New Zealand’s Broadband Experiment
Bomber plots a course for the friendly skies
TeamStaff hopes government austerity is path to profitability

2011

2011 in Review
Fuelled by failed economic theories, income disparity kills economies
Coffee competitors vie to be cream of the crop
Success with Zarlink not random chance
Banks considered as potential sources of high-card points
Thinking strategically about natural gas
A prescription for US deficit reduction
Ben hopes Akita knows the drill
Will Benj’s investment in Magnetek be elevated or inverted?
Bank of America and Summerworks: Both on the road to recovery?
No accounting for the effects of new accounting standards
Lights! Camera! Profits!
Banking on these four to vault to higher valuations
How Ben learned to stop worrying and love the US national debt
Deswell’s the model of a Contra play
Gravity’s a gaming greybeard
Tough to bet against Norsat
2010 in review: US stocks

2010

2010 in review: Canadian stocks
Theragenics is a study in contrasts
Hemisphere GPS provokes food for thought
Banking on change
Keeping a light on for Algonquin
GE hopes to live better — and not just electrically
Material Sciences pulls off impressive turnaround
With Consumers, the water’s not necessarily fine
Motorola has us revved up
Sticking with Bell, hoping to ring up gains
Cangene’s cheap, with a balance sheet as clean as a lab
A frothy future for Brick?
Prospecting for a turnaround in energy sector
Greek bank’s odyssey could be marked by peripeteia, or hamartia
CDI purchase a bet on jobs recovery
Buffett needs to anoint successor
Stewart’s investment strategy cremates wealth
The fast lane for Iteris?
Novell may be nearing its final connection
Is success in the stars for media giant?
South Korea: Opportunities to go for the green
2009 in Review: US Stocks
2009 in Review: Canadian Stocks

2009

HP brings 3Com into the pavilion
Big Pharma has H1N1 fever
Fresh strategies as important as fresh start for banks
Former car-wash kings need to clean up their act
Accounting practices cloud P/E picture
Gettin’ jiggy with Bank of Ireland
Study suggests health and wealth don’t go hand in hand
Betting on a financial industry rebound
A time to reap?
Hooking up with interactive media
Plucky survivor or impending collapse?
Do we Yahoo? Indeed we do
Biotech firm turns over new leaf — literally
Forget the art of the deal – we’re after deals in art
Everyone loves a comeback — here are 13
Auto union, government lack innovative solutions
Ten stocks that pay healthier dividends
Marriott not a hospitable investment
Waste management firm should be left by the curb
Eliminating all-or-nothing trades a bad move for investors, especially small ones
A look back at US stocks
2008 in Review: Canadian stocks

2008

Who needs clairvoyance when there’s contango?
With Richmont, we hope to be more efficient than the market
RV industry faces rough road
Still not time to roll out the barrel
Harper at the tiller of an ark with an empty till
High exec pay means we don’t play
Partial fills can be a pain … or a pleasure
A lesson learned on how to go Dutch
Here’s hoping Integrated Silicon will enhance our portfolio
A takeover bid that may end up six feet under
Not yet time to consider bank stocks
Takeover plays offer no guarantees
Tempur-Pedic could make for a rough night’s sleep
A brief dialogue about Plato
Why the housing bubble inflated
Iomega drives home a healthy return
Fishing for value nets a risky energy play
A hat trick, or a vanishing act?
Focusing on a thrifty purchase
Gold bulls are shiny, happy people
Norsat gaining altitude
It’s still sub-prime time for banking stocks
Banking on Intertape to make its turnaround stick
Insights and hindsights from lunchtimes past
2007 in Review: The US Stocks

2007

2007 in Review: The Canadian Stocks
Magellan Aerospace is still on the runway
Without government support, furniture industry may not have a leg to stand on
Overreaction, panic greet income trust tax announcement
In the investing dogfight, Nashua is a calm, profitable haven
Business cycle means rough road ahead for AutoZone
Can Spar be spurred to a better bottom line?
Whither the young lions?
You’ve got to know when (not) to hold ’em
Tip-toe thru the markets with us
Hartco’s hopping; we’re happy to hold
Still not time to cut bait with High Liner
Putting our chips on Zarlink
In retail, we know why the caged bird sings
Still sticking with Analysts
SaskPool succeeds in Agricore takeover
To everything there is a season
Private equity going public?
Can Solectron break out of perpetual turnaround mode?
Deja vu all over again?
Of blogs and bogs
Patience paid off with Moore
Stocks with pizzazz also offer risk
2006 in review — US stocks

2006

Will forestry be next sector to soar?
2006 in review
Reinvigorated loonie makes us whistle a happy tune
Donating capital gains: a king-size karmic boost
Diversify, but don’t overdo it
Algoma goes as steel industry goes
Hedge funds an accident waiting to happen
Furniture industry lacks necessary polish for a Contra buy
Atlas bears many burdens
No best-seller discount on Indigo shares
A contrarian strategy for gambling?
Network’s double bottom
Clean Power zapped by Contra philosophy
Real estate looking risky
Slimming down the portfolio
Fonar: Flop or fixer-upper?
We make an offer beyond be-Leaf
Sea Containers runs aground
Pickings slim in resource sector
Tale of two investors
Evaluating a stock’s “character” is risky business
Digging the funeral industry
Finding values that soar takes hard work
We stand by Cygnal
Our return for 2005: 24.3%

2005

Taking stock of 2005: Canadian firms
Never too soon to become a contrarian
Zucker’s Bay offer looks like a scratch ‘n’ save steal
Same old shenanigans to blame for Refco collapse
Stelco’s shorthanded, but doesn’t deserve a bailout
The Fonar prognosis
Florida-based Harris tunes into Leitch
What’s behind the July mutual fund boom?
We still see telecom in turmoil
Prospecting for value amongst junior miners
Reynolds’ book a Dr. Phil pill for investors
Sometimes it pays to break the rules
Looking back on past investments
We’re glad this one got away
NQL is a contrarian classic
Bombardier still not ready for Contra prime time
Look carefully at insider, buyback stats
We’re not bidding on eBay
In for the long haul with Analysts
CPP fund as solid as cement
The smaller brewers are hopping, too
The year that was, south of the border

2004

Reviewing the sooth we said in 2004
Does extinction loom for buy-and-holders?
Will Franklin Covey prove a highly effective purchase?
Canwel sates Sodisco’s urge to merge
What lies ahead?
With Kelman, the waiting is the hardest part
Sailing away from Westshore
Playing the Canada card? It’s hard not to think of The Bay
Krispy Kreme: Shorting, not Shortening
Time is ripe for Toronto to turn over a contrarian Leaf
You need more vacation
Forzani not low enough
Risking it on real estate
Radiation treatment
Matchmaker, matchmaker …
Analyst indifference sometimes spells opportunity
When executive pay is big, our desire to invest is small
KLM merger runs into turbulence
Metal mania?
Betting on a gold bull requires caution
KLM has been a Dutch treat
Walking on the wild side
Which guy is right?
Sisyphus sees the top
Has copper vein been tapped out?
A banner year

2003

A bumper crop in 2003
Air Canada makes investors look back in anger
Ford? At the moment, there are better ideas
Chalk up another takeover in the Contra stable
What’s so nutty about the loonie’s value?
Vive l’Air France?
Market timing isn’t everything, but nor is it nothing
Guide for the young contrarian
Those swingin’ small caps
Short-term economic thinking, unintended long-term consequences
Mining copper
Our portfolio’s big fat loser
Buying Japan
We’re waiting to put High Liner into drydock
OfficeMax finally a takeover target
Pantorama’s performance is slack, so is the trading
Magna not a Contra play
The US dollar bubble bursts
Bombay: Classic contrarian redemption
We’re not sure how much trust to put in the Legacy REIT
Betting on the Reaper
Corel is our latest takeover candidate
The taxing question of when to jettison our losers
What’s a real return, anyway?
Junk Bonds Mean Money’s Too Tight to Mention
For Bombay, no CEO is a good CEO
Losses were limited in our 2002 portfolio
A look at the winners in our 2002 portfolio

2002

Call us morons
Call us morons
It’s time for Microsoft to grow up
Japan? Buy?
Betting on the Reaper
Baby Needs a New Pair o’ Shoes
Respecting the Bear
Will KFC help Worldwide Restaurant shares sizzle?
Can telecom giants weather the perfect storm?
Time for a Roman holiday
New accounting standard: Before Bad Stuff
Now is a good time to make ’02 contribution to your RRSP
Sodisco lives in the shadow of an 800-pound gorilla
When it comes to airlines our top choice is KLM

2001

64.8% return for ’01 is okay by us
Aur plays cautious hedge game
New Year has us dreaming of deals
Moore provides shining example of turnaround play
We’re bruised but not battered
We’re watching gold but sitting on cash for the time being
JDS stock cheap, but no bargain
Fundamentals suggest it’s almost time for bottom fishing
Contrarians are misunderstood
Distress is the road to understanding
Will diamonds be forever?
We’ve taken profits in a selling bonanza
In the Klondike, dreams are still paved with gold
“Sell” seems to be the hardest word
It pays for investors to diversify with online brokers
For Luscar Coal, a compromise: Sell half, keep half
Weighting: How much is too much?
Just who is to blame for Nortel debacle?
Indigo investing program steals the show at financial forum
There’s no easy formula for defensive investing
Tobacco stocks lift performance of US portfolio
It’s time to look for cold sectors before they get hot
Do cigarettes, cellphones have something in common?

2000

It’s time to look at how well we did
Why OfficeMax looks like a takeover candidate
Higher oil prices are bringing relief to the oil patch and creating buying opportunities
Despite tobacco firms’ problems, investors can find value in their stocks, our contrarians say.
The turbulance in biotech ridicules the quaint notion of efficient market theory, our contrarians say.
People are avoiding small-tech stocks with good reason, but here’s a little US company that may be a buy, our contrarians say.
Nervous investors should remain wary of professional market bears, our contrarians say.
Mattel, the company that brought you Barbie, is hurting and not a buy yet, our contrarians say.
Seven months after the Dow’s facelift, things have not quite worked out as planned, our contrarians say.
The buy-and-hold mantra is a fool’s game, our contrarians say.
Share buybacks often help employees with stock options more than public shareholders, our contrarians say
Here are two of our favourite stocks to help cure the summer doldrums, our contrarians say.
The recent action in JDS Uniphase reveals market distortions by the S&P 500, our contrarians say.
Forget pint-sized gains, go for the Big Boppers
High Liner’s turnaround is as elusive as a mermaid
Coal is dead — just like oil was
Sometimes stocks will move by sheer luck alone
Buying thinly traded stocks is an art form in itself
Can a wizard’s spell save kitsch merchandiser Enesco?
Y2K should teach investors that the Internet is a wonderful communications tool and a dangerous propaganda appartus, our contrarians say.
Stop loss orders can leave you with larger losses than you expected
Moore at a crossroads: In the digital age, a speciality in preprinted business forms is an anachronism