By: Benj Gallander
Published: July 3, 2025
Elon Musk, and many other people, would like to see more people. Lots more people – despite the fact that the world’s population has grown explosively. In 1700, there were about 600 million of us. In 1975, there were about four billion. Today we are pushing the eight-billion mark. That, to us, is stratospheric growth and a lot of extra mouths to feed, clothe and shelter.
Certainly, there are many fantastic ways to make money off the breeding of humans. And the inverse? Stopping the breeding. In this case, might condoms prove to be a good investment?
Business for condoms has been growing steadily. Almost 61 billion are sold each year, with the United States, India and France leading the pack. Global condom sales in 2015 were 54.4 billion, and last year reached about 66.3 billion units, according to online data science platform Kaggle.
One major potential growth market is China, with only about 10 per cent of sexually active people using them, leaving a large untapped consumer base. We expect that more of the population will gravitate toward their use, with the leading brand Durex likely to continue to dominate the market.
The global leader in the industry, Durex maker Reckitt Benckiser is based in Britain and trades in London and the United States, in the latter as an ADR. Its total revenues are just south of US$14.2-billion, accompanied by a debt load around US$8.3-billion.
Unfortunately for Reckitt and its shareholders, the stock price has remained flat for years, currently around US$14, but we do see an excellent case where it could surpass US$20, which it did a number of times between 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, the dividend is a reasonably handsome 3.6 per cent, so shareholders get paid for waiting.
But this enterprise is much more than prophylactics. For investors seeking diversification, it produces Strepsils lozenges for sore throats, Finish to clean your dishes, sanitizer Lysol and a bevy of other products. This is a huge company, yet likely one that few Globe and Mail readers have heard of even though it has more than 40,000 employees in 125 countries.
One thing worth noting is that Reckitt continues to deal with lawsuits. It is alleged that the company’s Enfamil increased the possibility of preterm infants developing a serious medical complication. How this will play out is difficult to know. In 2019, the company agreed to pay US$1.4-billion in relation to the opioid epidemic.
We think that a good entrance point would be US$12 and change, with an initial sell target north of US$20.
Here in North America, Church and Dwight which ownsthe Trojan brand, dominates the condom market with more than a 75-per-cent market share. While headquartered in Britain, it has operations in about 60 countries, including manufacturing plants in Montreal and Mississauga.
For those seeking diversification, this outfit also has a wide range of personal and home care products, including carpet deodorizers, baking soda, laundry detergents, shampoo, showerheads and acne treatments.
Revenues are north of US$6-billion and climb year after year. The stock is not cheap though, trading at just under US$100, while the book value is just north of US$18. Vanguard Group is the major stockholder with almost 13 per cent.
As recently as late December the stock traded at US$113, but then dropped below US$70 before rebounding to just south of US$100. The company is well capitalized with cash of over US$1-billion but the debt load is not light at US$2.4-billion. A US$125-plus stock price in the next couple of years is not out of the question. Virtually every year it trends higher.